Macroeconomía en Venezuela
MV12 The Political Economy of Productivity: The Case of Venezuela. (2009) with J.M. Puente and P. Gómez. This study explores the idea that throughout the decades the disappointed productivity performance of the Venezuelan economy has been highly influenced by the outcome of a number of individual and collective decisions, which in turn are themselves endogenous to the actions and interactions of socioeconomic actors.
MV11 Declinación y Potencialidades del Sector Industrial Manufacturero en Venezuela (2009) To be published in Comercio Exterior. The study presents an evaluation of the recent performance of the manufacturing sector in Venezuela bringing to the analysis a short-run picture characterized by a recessive situation but also paying attention to the long-run process of premature industrialization. The study remarks the economic potential that still survives within the manufacturing sector as an engine for overall productivity growth and employment.
MV10 Cambio Estructural, Desindustrialización y Pérdidas de Productividad: evidencia para Venezuela (2009) Revista Cuadernos del Cendes, Vol. 26, N° 71. Empirical evidence is collected to show that during the last decades, the Venezuelan economy has experienced an accelerated process of structural change with a remarkable de-industrialization bias. The low dynamics of manufacturing exports, the intra-sectoral redistribution of output against manufacturing, and the reallocation of resources (labor) towards sectors in which labor productivity is decreasing with the highest intensity, indicate that the long-run development prospects of the country are severely undermined.
MV9 Macroeconomía y Desarrollo en un Estado Patrimonialista Petrolero: Venezuela 1999-2007 (2008) Published in FACES “La Escuela de Economía de la UCV – Una Trayectoria de 70 Años, pp. 377-395. This paper deals with the managing of the oil wealth in a Rentier State analyzing the recent performance and prospects of the economy of Venezuela. Two Macroeconomics regimes are identified during the recent administration of President Chavez: one exhibiting stagnation and growth, and the other, growth and inflation. We argue that despite the macroeconomic euphoria of recent years, long-run development prospects of the Venezuelan economy are seriously undermined.
MV8 Políticas Sociales y Productivas en un Estado Patrimonialista Petrolero:Venezuela 1999-2007, (2008) Revista Nueva Sociedad, N° 215. The paper provides an analysis of the economic context that prevailed in Venezuela between 1999 and 2007 in an effort to explain the failure and success of social and productive policies.
MV7 Venezuela: encrucijada de un modelo de desarrollo productivo (2007) ARI Nº 107/2007, Real Instituto Elcano. A brief analysis and evaluation of the economic policy approach that surrounded recent efforts to transform the productive sector in Venezuela. Some doubts are raised regarding the promotion a dual economic structure in which the alternative social economy (cooperatives and enterprises for social production) is strictly tied to the State. The main risk of the whole model is that it depends very much on the oil rent owned by the State.
MV6 Gobernabilidad y Estado Rentístico: El valor estratégico interno del recurso petrolero (2005) Published in Ramirez, M. (Ed.) “Governanza: Laberinto de la Democracia, Capítulo Venezolano del Club de Roma, pp. 255-269. This paper provides an hypothesis for the recent conduct of maximization of fiscal oil revenues by the government of Venezuela.
MV5 El Nivel Adecuado de Reservas Internacionales: Notas sobre el Caso Venezolano (2005). With Luis Zambrano. Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 20, N° 1. This paper reviews the literature regarding the adequate level of international reserves and its determinants. We follow the specification used by Aizeman and Marion (2002) to estimate the adequate level for the Venezuelan economy. We undertake an evaluation of the alternatives pointed out for excess reserves management in Venezuela.
MV4 Liderazgo Político, Renta y Política Económica: La gestión económica en la era de Chávez (2005). Mimeo. An interpretation and evaluation of the economic policy profile of the Chavez´ administration. The paper argues that the economic policy is a residual sub-set of a political model that pretends to perpetuate the rentier State and its distributive nature.
MV3 La Inflación en Venezuela: Un Decálogo de Proposiciones (1999). Presented to the Seminar “¿Es posible una nueva política económica y social en Venezuela?”. Ten stylized facts about the nature of the inflationary process that afflicts the Venezuelan economy since the late 1970s.
MV2 La Evolución Macroeconómica en Venezuela y Colombia en los 90s: Algunos Retos para la Armonización (1999). Revista BCV, Vol. 14, N° 1. In the context of an increasing trade integration between Colombia and Venezuela, this paper explores the main macroeconomic asymmetries that constraint future attempts of policy coordination.
MV1 Hacia un Comprensión del Proceso Inflacionario en Venezuela (1995) Revista de Economia y Ciencias Sociales, Vol. 2-3. An attempt to comprehend the inflationary process in Venezuela from an heterodox perspective. Inflation is not seen as a result of fiscal or monetary disorder but as a result of inconsistent income claims among sectors or interest groups that develop once the economy faces an exogenous shock. The inertial nature of the inflationary process is also remarked and policy alternatives are critically evaluated.